Daibutsu, Kamakura

Daibutsu, Kamakura
Daibutsu in Kamakura, June 2010. There were thousands of school kids visiting that day. It was still great fun.

Monday, March 21, 2011

What chance of a 'big one' in Tokyo?

BBC News reports that some seismologists who study Japan believe that the recent 9.0 earthquake off the coast of Eastern Japan may have slightly increased the chances for a large earthquake in the Tokyo area. I pray it does not happen in our lifetime but unfortunately it will happen. People and governments should be aware of that. The map below shows the plate boundaries around Japan. As you can see, Tokyo is right at the juncture of three plates, the Pacific Plate, the Eurasian Plate, and the Philippine Plate. You could say that Tokyo is in the middle of a gigantic crunch zone.

17 comments:

  1. I hope it doesn't happen anytime soon.

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  2. It can't happen and I pray it never does. I have yet to see Japan yet.

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  3. Yes, I hope we never ever see it, or the one predicted for Los Angeles.

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  4. As I understand it, earthquakes are on a cycle. The Sendai one was about on time, but Kanto is overdue.

    I think it is good that some companies are moving their HQs. Having Tokyo be both the government center and the financial center is a disaster waiting to happen.

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  5. Hi Tornadoes!

    Media is not yet focused much about this issue, but certainly scary X( People are stockpiling stuff, so maybe that's why...

    I hope it does not happen.

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  6. Yeah, awareness of the possibility is important. That said, of course I'm also praying it holds off.

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  7. Good timing! "Don't pick up the pieces of your life just yet! There's another really big one due. Just thought you ought to know. Save your energy til after that and then you brush yourself off."
    Thanks Yo (-;

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  8. Thanks everyone for the comments. I agree with Sixmats that Tokyo being both the government, finance and industry capital of Japan seems risky. What happens if the government and financial aspects of the country are incapacitated in a monster Tokyo quake? I hope the government is planning for that.

    I am not try to spread fear but there was a documentary several months ago about Plate Tectonics, I believe on the Nat Geo channel. They talked about Tokyo and said some people have a name for Toyko, "The City that is Waiting to Die". I don't like that name.

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  9. Hopefully is not anytime soon as we are still dealing with the disaster of the Sendai one. The current aftershocks are not a good sign though.

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  10. Yes, I agree. Japan does not need anymore disasters for a long, long time.

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  11. The red tape is really hurting the recovery effort so far and that makes me mad. And the "What if?" does happen, the government not ready in my opinion. So. Cal is due for one also, but that got knocked out by the fires the past few years.

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  12. Yes, the Japanese bureaucracy has hindered the relief from the tsunami. A failure in areas. They are not prepared for a big one in Tokyo.

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  13. Luckily for us here in LA the off shore undersea geology does not support the experienced magnitudes that hit Japan. We can still expect another Northridge but nothing like Sendai. All that matters now is human life.

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  14. You're right that our geology is different so we won't suffer quakes that large nor tsunamis. But we can still expect quakes a fair amount bigger than Northridge which was a 6.7. Some local faults may have quakes as large as 7.5 which would be devastating. And the San Andreas, although farther away, may have quakes exceeding 8.0 which would be considered the Big One. Hopefully not while we're around.

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  15. the fault zone closest to tokyo apparently causes a major earthquake about once every 70 years. the great kanto earthquake was in 1923 so based on the cycle a big one for tokyo has been overdue since 1993. over the last few years, whenever i flew out of narita, as the plane was barreling down the runway i had this eerie feeling that a big one would hit just as the plane was taking off. rather than the next big one for tokyo being overdue hopefully it just missed a cycle.

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  16. I too have heard tha Tokyo is overdo. Unfortunately it will come but I hope Japan (and the world) will be prepared for it. It won't be nice.

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